I got a robo phone call from the College Republican National Committee the other day, and after my surprise at being identified as college age, I agreed to take their survey.

I had to listen to a recorded message from someone who sounded quite angry telling me they were preparing an “army” to “wage war” on Obama. Then I was asked by a live voice what I thought their chances were of being successful in 2012.

I commented that I wondered why the language was so extreme—“war” on The President of the United States?

We are just winding down one war in Iraq, and fighting another in Afghanistan, so maybe we shouldn’t also be waging war on our own commander-in-chief.

That terminated the conversation.

I shouldn’t have been surprised by the vitriol. The College Republican National Committee has quite a history.

They used to be a conservative group, going back to the time when Ohio Governor William McKinley gave the keynote address at their founding in 1892. But in 1973, Karl Rove was appointed national chair of the committee by G.H.W. Bush, and the group took on the radical tactics of its leader.

In 2006, a Michigan CRNC organizer suggested a “Fun with Guns Day,” where students would shoot at cardboard cutouts of Democrats.

In fairness, the organizer was suspended, but the incident shows how extreme some of them could be.

My initial thought, was that racism prompted the war on our first African-American president.

Then I remembered how some media Republicans had talked of hanging Democrat Howard Dean, and strangling movie-making Democrat, Michael Moore. Not to mention the attempt in the 1990’s to remove President Clinton for his extramarital affairs.

Maybe they’re just desperate, I thought. After all, even with the economy struggling, President Obama’s hand seems to be getting stronger. The economy is improving, with unemployment down, the auto industry restored to world leader status.

In spite of the wild charges that Obama’s a “socialist,” he’s governed from the center, with policies that resemble Eisenhower and Nixon’s more than FDR’s.

And while many would like to see Medicare for all as health care, instead of Obama’s plan favoring private industry, and our troops out of Afghanistan, a CBS poll after his State of the Union speech showed that by 91 percent to 9 percent Americans favored his ideas for improving the country. Foremost among those ideas is that millionaires should pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes than ordinary working people, who make many times less.

I’ve been following public opinion for 50 years, and I can’t remember 91 percent support for anyone or anything.

Of course, the Republicans will have tons of campaign money, and their support groups from big business will have even more, but they start with the knowledge that by more than 2 to 1, we tend to re-elect our Presidents.

In the lifetime of folks today, since 1932, Presidents have been re-elected 10 times, while only 4 times have they lost, and each time that happened there were special circumstances.

In 1932, Herbert Hoover was blamed—not totally unfairly—for the Great Depression, and 25 percent unemployment, at a time when there was no safety net to cushion economic disasters.

Gerald Ford was defeated in 1976, but that hardly counts, since he was an appointed President, picked by Nixon before he resigned. Carter, who beat him, lost in 1980 when he seemed unable to cope with another severe economic downturn and the U.S. was humiliated by Iranians seizing our embassy.

George H. W. Bush was the last defeated President, and he famously promised at his national convention, “Read my lips—no new taxes.” Then he raised them in an effort to deal with a worsening economy.

On the other side of the equation, FDR was re-elected three times, with Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush all being re-elected, even though they all had obvious failings and faced tough opposition.

So, whether the Republicans nominate Romney, Gingrich, Santorum or Paul, they may need more than a political “army” to win.

The economy will probably determine the outcome, as it usually does, and right now that’s trending toward Mr. Obama.

 

Jack Burgess is a retired teacher of American & Global Studies.