Jim Crawford: Looking ahead to Trump 2.0
Published 12:00 am Thursday, December 12, 2024
As we witness the construction of the 2nd Trump administration, it is apparent that President-Elect Trump is in a more powerful position than when he first assumed office in 2017.
Then, Trump was unfamiliar with the inner workings of the federal government, and his administration ultimately became more rhetorical than legislative.
The sole legislative accomplishment of significance was the 2017 tax cuts, which provided permanent tax breaks to corporations, about 80 of the individual tax cuts going to wealthy Americans, and expiring tax cuts to most Americans.
Then, the president had to subdue a Republican Congress that was not always compliant with his wishes. Now, in 2024, virtually no elected Republican will confront the president in public for fear of Trump’s demonstrated retribution using primary challenges and his loyal base against Republican independence. The resistance to Trump within the Republicans is now silenced.
Additionally, Trump’s 2024 campaign focused on three issues that should give him a great deal of unilateral power to exercise without much help or assistance from Congress.
While immigration reform should be resolved by congressional law-making, the Trump plan skips that path for direct presidential actions to expel millions of undocumented individuals and families by the Trump-suggested use of the National Guard, the Coast Guard, and, possibly, the American military under the Insurrection Act. Using these tools will not require congressional approval and can be activated by the president alone.
Likewise, Trump’s plan to use tariffs against our trading partners requires only a presidential decision to punish other nations for failure to cooperate with U.S. demands, as already utilized verbally by Trump in his demand for Canada and Mexico to comply with U.S. border demands. This particular power, if used as a personal weapon against opponents on the world stage, can intimidate countries to grant American demands well beyond trade issues or face expulsion from American markets at the sole discretion of the U.S. president. This presidential power can also stimulate trade wars globally, thereby raising prices on a wide range of goods and products produced elsewhere and sold to American consumers.
The third Trump priority does require congressional submission, however. Trump wants a personal loyalist as the attorney general or head of the FBI. With the professional prosecutor Pam Bondi named as his candidate for A.G., Trump is now concentrating on placing his uber-loyalist, Kash Patel, as FBI director. Patel has promised to use his position to retaliate against those who prosecuted Trump for attempting to steal the 2020 election and government documents upon leaving office in early 2020.
For those who voted for Trump, expecting help for their plight in the American economy, Trump’s priorities will counter their hopes and dreams. Extending tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans will increase the already oversized national debt.
Cutting spending (see Musk and Ramaswamy’s efforts) will come at the expense of Medicaid and Pell Grants to needy Americans. Cutting Social Security will harm America’s seniors and those approaching retirement.
But Musk and Ramaswamy intend to cut trillions in federal spending and given that nearly 50 percent of federal spending is on Social Security and Medicare, those programs will have to face steep cuts to accomplish the goals expressed.
Tariffs will raise prices on goods and services, while creating inflation, and expelling millions from America will cost trillions of dollars, reduce the number of employment candidates needed, and stimulate a recession.
Trump has consolidated power this time around, and there is little to stop him from attaining his goals.
The sole remaining bulwark standing is an almost evenly divided Congress that can’t give Trump much support or cooperation.
But, given Trump’s priorities and powers, he may be able to accomplish a great deal without any help.