A month ago, Joe Biden looked like easy prey in the 2024 election, with Donald Trump’s team openly estimating a landslide victory. Biden was burdened not only with his historically poor debate performance but also with the other obvious signs of age: a stiffer and slower gait and a weakened voice. Polling suggested the Trump team might not only capture the White House but win control of both houses of Congress in 2024.
What a difference a month makes.
Today, Vice President Harris, who replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate after Biden withdrew, is tied or leading in most polling against Trump, and has narrowed the margins so much that North Carolina and Georgia appear to be in play for Democratic victories in November.
And now it is Trump that looks like prey.
He stumbles to find a winning contrast against the younger, more energetic, more positive Democratic opponent he faces in Harris.
And even on the key issues, Immigration, the economy, and abortion, it seems as though Trump has no effective argument for his candidacy.
The latest CPI for the economy shows inflation at 2.9%, the lowest since the pandemic, and it is falling month by month. Grocery prices are stabilizing, used car prices are down, and the Federal Reserve seems destined to cut interest rates in September. The US recovery from the pandemic remains the strongest among developed nations, and wage increases have beaten inflation for seventeen consecutive months. GNP is higher during the Biden term than in Trump’s presidency.
The economy is performing very well, and the hoped-for “soft landing” without recession appears to have already happened.
Trump’s economic plan is to cut corporate taxes once again and provide most voters with a snippet of tax reduction by extending the very minor tax cut he granted in his 2017 tax bill. Trump says he would also lower oil prices. However, Biden already has the US positioned as the world’s top oil producer, keeping market prices competitive and yet profitable for US producers.
On Immigration, Trump’s plan for massive deportations would, according to a majority of tax analysts, create an immediate and massive recession while violating international treaties and US law. Harris offers faster tracks to asylum decisions and expulsions, and a path to citizenship to those who earn it.
On abortion, Trump created the life-threatening crisis that American women now face in their reproductive rights, and nothing he can or will say or do can exonerate him for his actions. Harris offers to restore Roe as law and fully protect abortions for every American woman.
Policy matters to many voters, and Harris is subject to criticism for her past positions on fracking (she opposed it) and on the defunding the police argument (she flirted with supporting that bad idea). However, Republicans have not had much success getting voters to see those issues as more than abstractions.
Trump may find a way back for 2024, but so far at least, his campaign is deeply negative, sounds too much like 2016, and exposes him as fundamentally unlikable to many voters.
As for Harris, her magic comes from her youthful contrast and positive energy in the campaign, igniting voters unmoved by the potential campaign of two old white men. Now, there remains one obviously old white man claiming the US is “literally” (his claim) a “Third World Nation” and who campaigns shouting refrains of his past perceived slights. At the same time, Harris optimistically offers hope and change for the future of America.
There are many events yet to unfold before the election, but today, at least, Donald Trump certainly looks like prey.